An Iran nuclear deal revival could dramatically alter oil prices if it happens

The return of the Iran nuclear deal could be imminent — and with it, the return of a lot of oil to international crude markets. 

Before the U.S. resumed sanctions on Iran after former President Donald Trump left the deal in 2018, Iran was the third-largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2017, it was the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, after the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, warned that OPEC could be forced to cut oil production. The minister’s reasoning was that physical and paper markets are “disconnected” with the latter suffering from “very thin liquidity, extreme volatility,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg last week.

But Iran’s potential reemergence on the market is also likely to be a concern, analysts say.